The r.Virgeel’s model is stable since enough to let me say it is now entering its early maturity. I’m working in the refinement field to gain speed, affordability, stability. Less, and this is my fault, I work in the field of communicating how to read and use the model’s output. This is obviously useful to newbies (to the website and also to trading), but also to experienced traders and investor, and even to long term subscribers, that already know the mechanics of the forecasts.
The global goal of r.Virgeel is to detect the best S&P 500 market position available: better stay long or short? Then it provides indicators to detect the incoming market waves projecting targets, stops, with the support of confirmation indicators. r.Virgeel was not conceived to be a trading system, but it sorted out to be a sort of. I do not push it, I always suggest to get the suggestions and verify inside your framework.
Let’s take the Long Position and its dynamic: r.Virgeel detects a deteriorating downward move and warns the short end is near. Signals that mark the bottom are fired. r.Virgeel confirms the long position. Occasions to add to Position are detected, to let you enter/add with margins of safety. Warnings are fired when the position is detected weakening. Next inversion is detected/confirmed and so on.
The previous is the ideal path that resides on the learning side of the model, then when applied to the real day by day market, some signal may be missing, some turn may be a bit bumpy, some uncertainty arises here and there, usually sniffing incoming turbulence.
Please, note that these warnings are to be used inside your framework: your trading and investing style must not be rebooted, just may integrate the r.Virgeel’s suggestions. It may need some time to adapt, but the utility of a totally unbiased a.i. robo-advisor is out of doubt.
Here a visual representation of the Long Position as detected by r.Virgeel. For the opposite Short Position, just reverse the rules.
We have the three main indicators rV.Stop, rV.Target and rV.Position that defines the global situation. Some confirmation indicators are needed because sometimes the main indicators diverge and generate uncertainty. (see bifurcation to approach the topic)
In the real world, here you may see the Alpha Chart generated on 28th of August 2019: it summarizes .Virgeel’s opinion for the incoming wave, well confirmed by recent market action.